Validation of Clinical PROMISE Score in Predicting 3-Month Mortality in Malignant Pleural Effusion Patients
Dita Gemiana1, Cleopas Martin Rumende2, Ikhwan Rinaldi3, Robert Sinto4 , Aida Lydia5, Rudy Hidayat6, Noto Dwimartutie7, Nadia Ayu Mulansari3
1 Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
2 Respirology and Critical Illness Divison, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
3 Hematology and Medical Oncology Division, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
4 Tropical and Infectious Diseases Division, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
5 Nephrology Divison, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
6 Rheumatology Divison, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
7 Geriatric Divison, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
Corresponding Author: Dita Gemiana
Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
Email: dita.gemiana91@ui.ac.id, Phone 081319100857
Abstract
Background: Pleural effusion is a frequent complication of malignancy. Malignant pleural effusion accounts for 15% to 35% of all pleural effusion cases and the incidence rate reaches 660 people per 1 million population globally. Several prediction models have been evaluated to predict mortality in malignant pleural effusion patients. The PROMISE score is a prediction model for 3-month mortality in patients with malignant pleural effusion.
Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients with malignant pleural effusion registered in 2015-2022 at Cipto Mangunkusumo National Central General Hospital. A three-month mortality assessment was carried out. The collected data was analyzed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test to determine the calibration performance and creation of a Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) curve to determine the discrimination performance of the Clinical PROMISE score on three-month mortality outcomes.
Results: A total 120 subject were included in the study. The majority of subjects were women (73.3%), mean age 55 years and other types of cancer (78.3%). The Clinical PROMISE score had good calibration performance (p = 0.230, coefficient of correlation r = 0.945). The discrimination performance of the Clinical PROMISE score was good with an AUC of 0.849 (95% CI 0.776 –0.922).
Conclusion: The calibration and discrimination performance of Clinical PROMISE score to predict 3-month mortality of malignant pleural effusion is good.
Keywords: Malignant pleural effusion, mortality, Clinical PROMISE score.
